Anyone looking for a break from chillier spring weather will be disappointed as the warm surge expected on Thursday has collapsed into more of the same just-above positives as today. The change injected a bit more calm in what was expected to be a rollercoaster week for weather.
Environment Canada Meteorologist Natalie Hasell talks about the change and why it was so drastic.
"Depending on how the low pressure system tracks, the circulation around the low will either, if you're North of the low, you'll be in the cold air, if you're South with the low, you'll be in the warmer air, and sometimes your area of concern is just on the edge of that transition. So if the low slumps a little further South in its track or expected track, then you will suddenly be in the cold air for longer or for the entire passage of the low."
Hasell says she can't really call the change fortunate or unfortunate, as the warmer air would have seen more melt which would freeze overnight and cause some slippery surfaces.
Saskatchewan itself won't be totally without warmth, as for areas near the border they will be feeling some warmth, though that'll be dampened compared to what was previously forecasted.
Hasell says that making a change in the forecast that can turn a day's fortune on its head comes with a lot of data going through their centres.
"We're constantly comparing model output to the real observation data so that we can gauge how well the models are doing and how well they're placing low pressure system's transition zones, just general temperatures sometimes, and then of course the areas of precipitation and that type of thing."
In case their models seem off compared to what the area is seeing, Hasell says that they have a few methods for double-checking the upcoming weather.
"If the models are not doing very well, we do have some short-term forecasting techniques that can be used and allow us to gauge and change the forecast as necessary. Sometimes the change happens quite a time before the actual time of the event."
One bit of weather that's usually a bit troublesome for Environment Canada is freezing rain, as while they can get a good idea it's coming down in an area at some point, getting an exact date can be tricky.
Hasell says that they're looking to constantly improve the tools they have to better deliver forecasts for Canada.