The SJHL playoffs start on Friday, and as it is most years, it looks like it could be an exciting race for the Canterra Seeds Cup.
We took a look at the numbers, and the statistics, and then put them all into a computer simulation to see who would come out on top in the first round. The series results are based on 1000 simulations and then going with the most common outcome.
1st place Melfort Mustangs vs 8th place Kindersley Klippers
In the 1000 simulations, Melfort won the series 86 per cent of the time. Their home-ice advantage, superior special teams, and overall better season performance give them a clear edge. Kindersley will be a tough opponent and could steal a couple of wins, but Melfort has the edge.
Prediction: Melfort in 5
2nd place Flin Flon Bombers vs 7th place Humboldt Broncos
This series was closer in the simulations than the Melfort-Kindersley match-up, but the higher seed is still expected to win, with Flin Flon winning 61 per cent of the time in the simulation. The series is evenly matched statistically, with both teams having competitive special teams. Flin Flon’s slight edge in the overall record and power play performance gives them the edge, but Humboldt’s road performance and penalty kill may push the series to six or seven games.
Prediction: Flin Flon in 6
3rd place Weyburn Red Wings vs 6th place Battlefords North Stars
The season series saw the Battlefords win three of the four games, which may have had an impact on how this simulation played out. Weyburn is favoured, though, with the simulation showing Weyburn coming out on top 58 per cent of the time. The Red Wings have a slightly better overall record and home performance. However, Battlefords’ penalty kill, and aggressive play give them an edge, especially on the road. This match-up is expected to be competitive.
Prediction: Weyburn in 6
4th place Yorkton Terriers vs 5th place Melville Millionaires
The Highway 10 match-up is expected to be a battle, as it often is when these two teams meet in the playoffs. The simulations do have Yorkton winning 77 percent of the time, but the majority of the series going to seven games. Yorkton’s strong home record and superior special teams give them an edge, but the Millionaires have momentum heading into the postseason.
Prediction: Yorkton in 7 (barely)