Business confidence among Alberta’s small firms has fallen to one of the lowest levels in the country as demand weakens and global trade tensions deepen, according to new survey data from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.
The province posted a long-term confidence index score of 24.1 in March, trailing only Ontario (23.4) and slightly ahead of Quebec (24.9). The figures come from CFIB’s latest Business Barometer survey, conducted March 5 to 7 with 1,065 of its members.
The monthly index, measured on a 0 to 100 scale, reflects business expectations for the next three to 12 months, with scores below 50 indicating more firms expect performance to worsen than improve.
Nationally, the index dropped 24.8 points to 25.0—an all-time low. CFIB says the result is worse than during the 2008 financial crisis, the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, or the aftermath of 9/11.
"Small business owners are feeling pessimistic about their business’s perspectives for the next few months or even beyond," said Simon Gaudreault, CFIB’s chief economist. "No one knows when the tariff war will end, and businesses are worried the worst is yet to come."
Trade tensions with both the United States and China are compounding pressure on key sectors, particularly agriculture.
As of March 20, China has imposed 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian canola oil and canola meal, along with other agricultural commodities, in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum. Additional tariffs on pork and seafood are also expected to restrict exports to one of Canada’s largest markets.
Economic concerns are not limited to small business owners. ATB Financial’s latest outlook, released the same week, forecasts a slowdown in Alberta’s growth, with real GDP expected to rise just 1.5 per cent this year. The provincial unemployment rate is projected to average 7.6 per cent in 2025, as businesses and consumers pull back in response to what ATB called "unprecedented" trade and policy uncertainty.
Weak demand is weighing heavily on business expectations. CFIB says 59 per cent of surveyed firms reported insufficient demand in March, up from the pandemic-era peak of 53 per cent. Hiring plans are also softening: 19 per cent of small businesses say they plan layoffs in the coming months, while just 11 per cent expect to hire.
Price hikes are on the rise, with small businesses planning to raise prices by an average of 3.7 per cent—up from 3.0 per cent in February. Wage expectations, meanwhile, dropped to 1.9 per cent from 2.2 per cent.
Sector confidence fell across the board, with hospitality (17.0), manufacturing (18.6), transportation (21.0) and agriculture (21.3) showing the weakest outlooks.
Corinne Pohlmann, CFIB’s executive vice-president of advocacy, called on governments to take immediate action to support small firms, including making carbon tax rebates tax-free, increasing the lifetime capital gains exemption and adopting full mutual recognition across provinces.
"Business confidence is at abysmal levels," Pohlmann said. "If this doesn’t send a strong warning signal to policymakers... then I’m not sure what will."
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