The Northern lights could light up Alberta’s skies this weekend, with potential visibility from around Airdrie.
Chris Ratzlaff, an Airdrie resident and founder of the Facebook group Alberta Aurora Chasers, posted an update Saturday estimating a 55 per cent chance of full-sky aurora on March 22, with activity possible within a 24-hour window on either side.
His forecast is based on a fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) linked to an M1.4-class solar flare observed on March 21. Ratzlaff wrote that the resulting geomagnetic conditions could produce northern lights stretching across Alberta, even over urban areas, depending on visibility.
"Unsettled to active conditions are expected," he wrote. "Isolated G3 (strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on March 23."
At Calgary’s latitude, Ratzlaff says strong geomagnetic activity (KP7 or higher) can result in aurora visible overhead or across the entire sky. Lesser activity (KP4 to KP6) may still create visible displays to the north, especially in darker areas outside city limits.
NOAA confirms storm potential, peaking Sunday
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also forecasts elevated geomagnetic activity over the weekend. In its 3-day outlook issued Saturday morning, NOAA predicts:
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G1-level (minor) storming on March 22, with KP index values expected to reach 6
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G3-level (strong) storming on March 23, driven by the same CME
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G1-level activity again on March 24 as the storm subsides
NOAA’s forecast is based on satellite data and global modelling. NOAA's timeline is issued in coordinated universal time (UTC).
AuroraForecast.com calls for elevated activity
A separate forecast from AuroraForecast.com rates current aurora conditions at 5 out of 10, indicating moderate activity. That site predicts:
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Elevated to active aurora on March 22, with a slight chance of isolated major auroral substorms at both high and mid-latitudes
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Continued active conditions on March 23, though less intense at lower latitudes
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Moderate to quiet conditions on March 24, with isolated activity still possible
According to the site, aurora may be visible overhead in northern regions, and low on the horizon from many communities across the Canadian provinces and territories, including Alberta.
Weather could be a factor
Environment Canada’s forecast for Calgary as of 11 a.m. Saturday calls for partly cloudy skies tonight, with a 30 per cent chance of flurries or rain showers early in the evening. Conditions are expected to clear late this evening, with wind becoming light overnight and a low of –11 C. The wind chill could reach –14.
Best times and safety tips
Ratzlaff says aurora is typically strongest around midnight, though displays can begin shortly after dusk. He recommends heading outside city limits to escape light pollution and advises observers to avoid parking on highways or trespassing on private land. Use designated public areas such as provincial parks or rural community halls for safe viewing.
How to photograph the aurora
For photography, Ratzlaff suggests using a tripod and switching cameras to manual mode. Use the lowest possible aperture, a mid-range ISO, and shutter speeds between 5 and 30 seconds depending on brightness. Newer smartphones should use night mode, while older models may require specialized apps or manual settings.
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