Ahead of what could be a wintry start to Spring Break, Environment Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement for a significant portion of Western and Central Manitoba including the Carman, Portage, Brandon, Souris and Virden areas. Generally speaking, areas south of Highway 23 are currently not part of the statement.
"A moisture packed Alberta clipper will bring accumulating snow to parts of the province starting Thursday and continuing through Friday night before tapering off before Saturday morning," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "With the way the jet stream is positioned over B.C. and Alberta, ridging toward the north of those provinces, moisture filled air is coming off the Pacific Ocean, riding that conveyor belt of air, and then descending across northern Alberta, central Saskatchewan and ultimately central and southern Manitoba. The current forecast models are indicating the heaviest swath of snow will fall along the Yellowhead highway that entire stretch, but we are still early in this system's evolution, and track changes are likely."
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According to Environment Canada, 10-20 cm of fresh snow is expected by Friday evening in the Special Weather Statement areas, with the higher end totals likely over the higher terrain of western Manitoba including the Riding Mountain and Duck Mountain areas.
"Some snow, and freezing rain, is possible for areas south of Highway 23 including Altona, Winkler, Morden, Pilot Mound, Killarney, Boissevain and Melita," noted Sumner. "With that said, totals are expected to be less than further north and west, but accumulating snowfall of 5cms, or a little more, is possible. But, let's keep in mind, if this Alberta clipper-like system drifts southward while travelling across the Prairies, regions closer to the U.S. border in Manitoba would see higher snowfall totals."
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Travel conditions will be impacted by the system starting Thursday night, with breezy easterly and northerly winds potentially leading to blowing snow and reduced visibility throughout Friday.
"How severe those travel impacts are will be dependent on snowfall rates and just how gusty those winds get," said Sumner. "Generally speaking, the further north and west you travel out of the Red River and Pembina Valleys, the more likely it will be to run into challenging driving conditions during the storm's duration from Thursday night through Friday night."
Sumner noted the track of this storm is still being fine tuned, so it's possible additional areas may be added to the Special Weather Statement.