Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre has released its March Flood Outlook, reporting a low to moderate risk of spring flooding for most rivers across the province.
The overall risk depends largely on weather conditions from now until the spring melt is complete. Daily temperatures are gradually warming, and with ice thickness and strength expected to deteriorate, residents are urged to stay off rivers, waterways and retention ponds.
At this time, the centre expects most lakes to remain within their desired operating ranges after the spring runoff, and the risk of flooding along Manitoba’s lakes is considered low.
A moderate risk of flooding is forecast for several regions, including:
-
The Assiniboine River main stem from Russell to Brandon
-
The Souris River
-
The Qu'Appelle River
-
The Interlake region, including the Fisher and Icelandic rivers
A low (minor) flood risk is in effect for the Red, Pembina, Rat, Roseau, Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, Churchill, Carrot and Swan rivers, as well as the Whiteshell Lakes area.
The Hydrologic Forecast Centre is also closely monitoring a weather system expected to bring up to 15 cm of snow to most central and southern Manitoba basins over the weekend. The anticipated precipitation has been factored into the current flood outlook.
Minimal operation of the Red River Floodway and Portage Diversion may be necessary if future weather conditions warrant it. The Shellmouth Dam is being actively managed in consultation with the Shellmouth Dam liaison committee to provide reservoir storage for spring inflows, reduce downstream flood risk, and maintain sufficient water levels for recreation and supply.
Ice-cutting and breaking operations are now complete on the Red and Icelandic rivers. Crews will carry out similar work along the Fisher River this week to reduce ice jam-related risks.
Meanwhile, the Manitoba Emergency Management Organization (EMO) continues working with local authorities and emergency management partners to review emergency plans, share information, and coordinate flood preparedness. Manitoba EMO is also collaborating with Indigenous Services Canada and Municipal and Northern Relations to support First Nations and Northern Affairs communities in their flood readiness efforts.
The full 2025 Spring Flood Outlook of the Assiniboine River is available at:
https://golden-west-content.s3.amazonaws.com/2025-03/assiniboine.pdf
~With files by Betty Sawatzky and Candace Derksen.