With temperatures in Weyburn set to reach a near-summerlike 21° on Friday, many residents are wondering if winter has finally released its grip on southeast Saskatchewan. While the warm forecast is certainly welcome, Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Danielle Desjardins advises caution before packing away the winter coats.
“You can't completely rule it out at least for, you know, another month or so,” Desjardins explained in an interview this week. “We still could see some snow.”
That said, the short-term outlook is promising. The forecast is calling for temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than the average for this time of year, with daytime highs in Weyburn typically at 10° in early April, and overnight lows dipping just slightly below freezing. But this year’s forecast, as well as the broader seasonal outlook, suggests that the region may be in for a warmer-than-usual spring.
Desjardins notes that Environment Canada’s seasonal forecasts take into account global weather patterns, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). “We just came out of a weak La Niña winter, and we're going to head into neutral territory for the remainder of spring and into the summer now,” she said.
During ENSO-neutral conditions, it becomes more difficult to predict long-term weather trends with high accuracy.
“There isn't a super strong signal of which way it's going to go just yet,” Desjardins pointed out. “There's almost, you know, an equal chance of it swinging either way.”
While some may hope for another La Niña year to bring much-needed moisture, despite the colder temperatures it tends to bring, there’s no guarantee of a repeat.
“It definitely doesn't mean that it swings back into El Niño or one way or the other, really,” she clarified. “It depends on the sea surface temperature anomalies and basically ocean currents.”
Looking ahead, even if spring as a whole turns out to be warmer than average, that doesn’t mean every day will be balmy. “You're always going to get the dip up and below normal on a kind of a day-to-day or even a week-to-week basis,” she explained. “But when we look at these seasonal outlooks, we say what’s overall going to end up at the end of that period of time.”
So, while Friday's 21° might tempt some to declare winter over, Saskatchewan weather still has room for surprises. Just maybe not this weekend.