Residents in Weyburn and across southeast Saskatchewan are being advised to stay weather-aware Monday afternoon and evening, with the potential for thunderstorms developing in the region, some of which could become severe.
According to Danielle Desjardins, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, the right ingredients are present for the development of the storms.
“With the hot weather, we do have a lot of instability in the air, and so that gives a lot of energy for these thunderstorms to potentially develop,” Desjardins explained. “There’s also a trough of low pressure coming through the region that could trigger those thunderstorms.”
While the risk of storms extends across much of southern Saskatchewan, meteorologists are paying particular attention to the southeast corner of the province, including the Weyburn area, where there is more atmospheric energy in play.
Two key ingredients being closely monitored are CAPE, which stands for Convective Available Potential Energy, and wind shear. CAPE measures the amount of energy available to fuel thunderstorm updrafts, while wind shear refers to changes in wind speed or direction with height in the atmosphere. When both are present, the potential for severe thunderstorm development increases significantly.
“There are four main ingredients we look for: moisture, instability, a trigger, and wind shear,” said Desjardins. “When all four are present, we’re more likely to see stronger storms.”
The main threat for Weyburn and surrounding areas appears to be strong wind gusts, especially if storms can form and pull higher-altitude winds downward to the surface. Other hazards, such as hail or even an isolated tornado, cannot be entirely ruled out, but are considered less likely.
One uncertainty remains, however: how much moisture will be present in the atmosphere later in the day.
“It’s really going to depend on just how much moisture we get and how much the dew points increase throughout the day,” said Desjardins.
Environment Canada may issue a severe thunderstorm watch later in the day if conditions continue to favour storm development. A watch means storms are possible, while a warning means severe weather is occurring or imminent.
“As soon as you see the thunderstorm watch, keep an eye on the sky because we do expect thunderstorm development to be imminent,” Desjardins advised.
You can stay up to date with the latest forecast with the Discover Weyburn app or on the Discover Weyburn Weather page.