While the storms didn’t develop in the Weyburn area on Wednesday, the conditions for storms to develop on Thursday are still prevalent in the region. Forecasts and models show the conditions will be most favourable for thunderstorm development in the late afternoon and early evening.
While the day started with a strong atmospheric cap, essentially a warm layer of air that suppresses storm development, weather data suggests that the cap may weaken just enough by supper hour to allow isolated storms to form. These storms, if they do develop, could be strong, with the potential for gusty winds, heavy rain, and possibly hail.
The data, which comes from the Rapid Refresh model and is provided through the College of DuPage’s NEXLAB, shows the conditions start to shift around 5 p.m. This will include the sharp decline of the cap that inhibits storm development. With surface heating, possible with a forecast high of 26° and a projected humidex of 31, storms could initiate in the area.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s daily Prairie Storm Outlook echoed the models, stating the primary hazards will be hail and strong winds. There could be a tornado risk as well, but that is low given that the storm structure may not be too organized.
You can stay up to date with the latest weather situation on the Discover Weyburn Weather page. There, you can view the radar, get up-to-date alerts and warnings, and the forecast for the coming days.
While a storm may not develop, the atmosphere will be primed for it, and those conditions are expected to linger in the area on Friday as well.