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Residents across southwest Saskatchewan can expect a burst of active weather today, with severe thunderstorms and a short-lived heatwave on the horizon, according to forecasts.
A low-pressure system developing in Alberta is expected to track northeastward into northern Saskatchewan by Wednesday night. Ahead of the system, a surge of warm, humid air will spread across southern parts of the province, particularly by late Wednesday afternoon, helping to fuel thunderstorm development.
Forecasters say moisture-rich air from the south will combine with daytime heating to create unstable conditions, with the potential for multiple thunderstorms forming late Wednesday between Kindersley, Swift Current and Meadow Lake. These storms are likely to organize into clusters, known as multicell lines, and push eastward into the night.
Model guidance has remained consistent in showing storms initiating in the Highway 1 corridor by late afternoon and tracking east. These storms are expected to grow upscale quickly, initially posing a significant large hail threat before evolving into a broader multicell complex. A second area of initiation is also likely in the far southwest corner of Saskatchewan near Consul, where storms will track northeast through the evening.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts over 100 km/h are the main threats with these systems. There’s enough instability and wind shear to support strong to severe storms, especially across western Saskatchewan.
Some areas, particularly around Leader and Shaunavon, may see enhanced wind threats due to drier surface conditions, increasing the risk for powerful downdrafts and straight-line wind gusts.
While the storms could bring localized rain and temporary cooling, they won’t do much to ease the overall heat pattern setting up for southern Saskatchewan.
Wednesday’s daytime highs are expected to push into the low to mid-30s Celsius, with overnight lows staying in the mid-teens — the start of a short but noticeable heat event. While many areas won’t quite reach the thresholds required for a heat warning, the elevated temperatures may still pose risks for vulnerable populations and those working outdoors.
A cold front is forecast to sweep across Saskatchewan on Friday, bringing cooler air and a chance of much-needed widespread rain. Temperatures will drop more significantly by Saturday.
In the meantime, heat warnings may be issued further east across southern Manitoba as the hot air mass continues to build through Thursday and Friday.
Residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts and alerts at weather.gc.ca.
Weather Information - Environment Canada
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