New data shows we could be passed the worst of the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, but hospitalization rates are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future.
In a report from Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table from February 1, they say indicators suggest that this phase of the Omicron wave has plateaued or is in decline, and public health measures helped to control the spread of COVID-19 during this phase.
They warn that any relaxation of measures will directly lead to the increase of COVID-19 spread, and hospitals admissions are already at extremely high levels across all age groups. Intensive care unit occupancy continues to be high, while staffing in hospitals remains critical.
Their modelling shows that hospitalizations and ICU admissions are both expected to remain at a ‘prolonged peak, except under the most favourable assumptions.’
In the best-case scenario, the province is expecting about 2,000 hospitalizations per month. In the worst-case, it could jump to just under 6,000 patients. Factors would include how many people received their third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and the level of immunity in the community.
“We do have capacity in our hospitals,” responded Minister of Health and Deputy Premier, Christine Elliott, while speaking at an event in Ajax on February 1.
“It appears that the peak of Omicron has passed. That doesn’t mean that we’re entirely in the clear, of course. We still do have high levels in both our hospitalizations and our intensive care units, however, that is starting to decline.”
Canada’s top doctor, Theresa Tam, agrees that the fourth wave has likely peaked after Canada’s seven-day average of new cases went down nearly 30 per cent last week and the test positivity rate dropped 14 per cent.
Elliott notes the province’s capacity in their hospitals has led to more surgeries and procedures being allowed to take place, including cancer screenings, paediatric surgeries, diagnostic services and more.
She adds that throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Ontario has invested over $5.1 billion to create an additional 3,100 hospital beds, and hire 67 new healthcare professionals across the province.
“So even if the numbers do go up slightly as we start opening up, the modelling has been done to indicate that we still have the capacity to deal with that increase, but also deal with the people who have had their surgeries postponed,” adds Elliott.
The table’s warning against the relaxation of measures comes just days after a majority of Canadians, 54 per cent, responded in a study to say now is the time to remove COVID-19 restrictions and let Canadians manage their own level of risk.
Ontario’s top doctor, Kieran Moore, has also said the province ‘needs to change some of their thinking' when it comes to learning to live with COVID-19.
While Ontario still hasn’t provided any timeline for removing masks or the proof of vaccination system, they are still aiming to loosen restrictions by February 21, if public health trends continue to improve.
Step three of the province’s reopening plan is then set to take effect by March 14, where Ontario will remove all capacity limits in indoor settings, but proof of vaccination will still be in effect.