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Earlier this week, federal and provincial health leaders indicated COVID-19, and the Omicron wave is on a downward trend.
On Thursday, the province reported 2,797 people in hospital with COVID-19, which is just over 800 people fewer than a week ago. A decrease of people in intensive care units has been seen as 541 were reported on Thursday down 58 from a week prior.
At the local level, the Northwestern Health Units Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Kit Young Hoon said the downward trend is not being seen.
“Percent positivity has been recently increasing over the past few weeks, and the case numbers have also been increasing suggesting we’re not on a downward trend,” Young Hoon said.
As of Wednesday, the NWHU 7-day average positivity rate is sitting at 19.2 per cent with an all-time average of 2.2 per cent.
Due to the layout of the region being so spread out, Young Hoon believes that will cause the NWHU COVID-19 peak to look different than other urban centers.
“With respect to where we’re seeing widespread transmission, it is actually across the entire region. It might vary from community to community but we are seeing it in multiple places in the Kenora District, and many places in the Rainy River District.”
The widespread transmission along with the geographical layout is one among a couple of factors why Young Hoon believes the region hasn't seen a downward trend yet.
“One is that we started seeing our increase in Omicron cases later than the province. Our increase started towards the end of last week in December while provincially the increase was being noted towards the first week of December. We’re about 10 days to two weeks behind.”
“A peak in an urban center would be a large mass of people that live closer together, the transmission would occur to that entire population faster, but also affect the entire centre at the same time. Peaks seen in some of the southern Ontario health units are much higher than our peak.”
Young Hoon concluded by saying she believes the upward trend will continue.
“I think we need to be expecting that likely will continue, and I have to say considering that public health restrictions have been reduced further than likely that trend will continue.”
In a report from Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table from February 1, they say indicators suggest that this phase of the Omicron wave has plateaued or is in decline, and public health measures helped to control the spread of COVID-19 during this phase.
They warn that any relaxation of measures will directly lead to the increase of COVID-19 spread, and hospitals admissions are already at extremely high levels across all age groups. Intensive care unit occupancy continues to be high, while staffing in hospitals remains critical.
Their modeling shows that hospitalizations and ICU admissions are both expected to remain at a ‘prolonged peak, except under the most favourable assumptions.’