For those dreaming of a white Christmas, after several days of near melting temperatures, your wishes are likely to come true.
“Confidence continues to increase Southern Manitoba will see a multi-day winter storm beginning overnight Monday into Tuesday, lasting until at least Wednesday night,” explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. “This will be a very large low pressure system, geographically speaking, and will impact a significant portion of the U.S. plains, southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba at the same time. In fact, this storm system will reach as far south as the Gulf of Mexico, with a number of southern U.S. states potentially in line for severe weather outbreaks later this week.”
Sumner explained the Colorado low will develop and intensify quickly Monday (the 12th day of December for those keeping track), but then slow down to a crawl as it attempts to push eastward across the central United States. An area of high pressure centred over Hudson Bay and northern Quebec will impede the low’s easterly movement, setting up a scenario of several waves of snowfall over the course of Monday overnight to Wednesday night.
“This low will be tapping into two air-masses at the same time, warm and most air from the Gulf of Mexico, as well as cold air to the north of the storm,” he noted. “That means it will be filled with moisture, ready to fall, and that cold air will mean the precipitation will be falling as snow, and potentially a lot of it, for our region.”
At this point, storm snowfall totals south of the Trans Canada highway in Manitoba are looking likely to land between 15cm and 20cms, and that snow is expected to heavy and wet due the large amount of moisture being pulled into the storm from the Gulf of Mexico. Sumner added there is still uncertainty regarding where the heaviest snow bands will end up.
“What that means, is there’s a chance the higher end snowfall totals could be more than initially forecast. At this point, we are very confident this system will bring at least 10 to 15cms to southern Manitoba, with the potential for more, depending on how those heavier bands of snowfall play out.”
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Sumner added breezy northeasterly winds Tuesday and Wednesday will mean blowing and drifting snow, but how strong those winds will get is still somewhat up in the air, but gusts to 40 km/h can be expected.
“Whether this system moves into Blizzard Warning criteria remains to be seen, and it will hinge on just how gusty those winds get,” he said. “The potential is certainly there, but even if that criteria isn’t met, this will still be an impactful, multi-day winter storm.”
The impacts from the Colorado low are expected to begin to ease Wednesday night, with the system being out of our area by Thursday morning.