The weather story this week will be the very cold temperatures we’re expecting leading up to, and more than likely through, Christmas and Boxing Day, but the outlook has improved a bit from the bone-chilling temperatures first forecast.
"Now don't get me wrong, we're still expecting temperatures well below average for this time of year, but at this point, the most bitterly cold weather is expected to stay further west," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner Monday morning. "The airmass flooding over much of Western Canada, and well into the United States, originates from Siberia and will be riding a conveyor belt of upper northerly winds for the next five to seven days, a least."
Average daytime highs for this time of year are around -10, with overnight lows about -19. Over the next week, highs will struggle to reach the -20 to -23 range, with overnight lows flirting with -30 at times.
"We will be at least ten degrees below average, both daytime and night time, for much of the coming week, but right now the part of this Arctic airmass which may bring -40 degree weather to parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan is expected to stay there. With that said, it will still be really cold, and windchill values will be in the mid -30s, pushing toward -40, at times. Between the coldest lobe of the airmass staying west of us, and some cloud cover over the next few days, that's what will help keep us relatively warmer than regions facing extreme cold in the coming stretch."
A weak disturbance moving through Southern Manitoba Monday will bring a total of 2-5cms of snow throughout the day, and Sumner said that's looking likely to be the only flaky white stuff leading up to December 25th. Winds will remain light, so blowing snow won't be a concern, according to Sumner.
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Looking ahead to Christmas Eve through Boxing Day, the forecast models are indicating relatively sunny conditions, with below average temperatures continuing, very much on par with what we're expecting to start the week.
"At this point, I don't see any major snowfalls or winter storms in the mix, so right now it's appearing like travel conditions December 24th through 26th should be what you'd normally expect at this time of year," added Sumner. "We may see some temperature moderation as we get into the weekend, but I'm talking only a couple degrees warmer than what we'll see this week."
Overall, at this stage, Sumner is expecting a quiet weather week beyond the few centimeters of snow Monday.