With Louis Riel weekend just around the corner, a lot of families will be travelling here and there with plans, whatever they may be. The question is whether the weather will cooperate, and allow those plans to happen without a hitch.
"At this point, Friday, Saturday and Sunday during the day are looking like typical winter driving conditions can be expected, but beginning Sunday night and for much of Louis Riel Day Monday, it could be a slightly different story," said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "We have a series of clippers moving through, or grazing, the region over the weekend, and the system Sunday night into Monday looks like it may be the most likely to bring accumulating snow, and potentially breezy conditions."
Friday, an Alberta clipper moving through Northern Manitoba will be responsible for gusty southerly winds up to 60 km/h, which according to Sumner, could lead to some patchy ground-drifting or blowing snow before noon. Those winds will diminish in the afternoon, but before doing so, will be pumping warm, Pacific air into the region, jacking temperatures upward more than ten degrees higher than Thursday. Highs between -1 and +1 are expected. He noted, if temperatures warm soon enough during the day while the winds are still gusty, we could see some snow stick to highways, leading to slick conditions.
"Saturday will continue the warmer weather, as a southerly flow keeps things above average for this time of year, once again around -1 to +1," said Sumner. "We're also expecting a return to mainly sunny conditions, after a relatively cloudy start to the weekend Friday. Arctic high pressure will move southward over the Prairies by Sunday morning, and that means a return to cooler conditions, with highs between -10 to -12, which is below average for this point in February, with normal highs around -6. The cool conditions won't last long, because ahead of the arrival of the final clipper of the weekend Sunday night, southerly winds will again bring warmer conditions to Southern Manitoba for Monday, around -4 to -6."
Sumner noted light snow will more than likely begin late Sunday night, continuing into Monday morning, and then potentially off and on throughout the day.
"We're not expecting significant accumulations with this system, possibly up to 5cms, maybe a little more, with southwestern parts of the province potentially only receiving a few flurries," he noted. "We're also, at this time, not expecting really windy conditions, so visibility shouldn't be too much of a concern. We may see some ground drifting, or minor blowing snow in open areas, but I'm not projecting major impacts from this low."
Looking ahead to after the weekend, it's appears a return to the freezer is on the agenda, with very cold conditions expected.
"I know no one wants to hear this, but early guidance in the forecast models is suggesting, after Monday’s system, we’ll enter another period of well below average temperatures, as another round of very cold arctic air descends over the Prairies. Highs in the -20s by Tuesday, and overnight lows back to the -30s, potentially," said Sumner. "At this point, it looks like the cold snap will be brief, with some moderation by the final weekend of the month, but temperatures will remain well below average for this time of year as we head into the final days of February."