Updated at 4:32 p.m. Wednesday, April 19th 2023 - Environment Canada has issued Snowfall Warnings for essentially all of Southern Manitoba ahead of a second round of precipitation from a complex low pressure system impacting the province.
According to the forecaster, a widespread 10 to 20 cm will fall, with the slow-moving disturbance pulling another wave of snow into the region tomorrow.
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"A more considerable and consistent snow-rain mix is what we'll start the day with," said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "Very much like what we saw for parts of Wednesday morning, but rather than bursts of precipitation periodically, once it begins, we can expect it to last. That mix will changeover to just snowfall later in the day, as temperatures cool. This will be heavy, wet snow, exactly the kind we're used to seeing during an April snowstorm."
Moderate to heavy snow will spread northwards into parts of southern Manitoba early Thursday morning, then spread eastward across the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba through the day. Local accumulations in excess of 20 cm may occur in areas close to the western escarpment of the Red River Valley.
"We've been saying it all week, and we saw it right before our eyes Wednesday morning, because of how warm the ground is, almost all the snow we received in the Red River Valley melted on contact, or shortly there after," he added. "We'll see that scenario happen again Thursday, but eventually the amount of snow falling will be faster than the melting, and then we'll see accumulation building up on boulevards and lawns."
After the bulk of the snow falls on Thursday, Sumner noted the flakes will continue Friday morning with an additional few centimeters.
"Breezy northerly winds will also develop Thursday, gusting between 40 and 50 km/h, so blowing snow is likely at times," he said.
For the latest forecast details, click here.
Based on the current forecast models, the low should finally be out of our region by Friday evening, with sunny conditions returning for the weekend, but daytime highs well below average, ten degrees colder, or more, than normal. Highs Saturday and Sunday are currently forecast to land between 0 and +2.
Our original story published Wednesday morning is below.
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Wintry impacts begin today across much of Southern Manitoba as a strong Colorado low brings substantial snowfall, strong winds and sloppy conditions between now and Friday night.
A Special Weather Statement is in effect for the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba, with those regions expected to be spared the worst conditions from round one today. Snowfall and Winter Storm Warnings are in place for all of Western Manitoba where 15cm to 40cms is possible by Friday night, along with gusty winds up to 70 km/h.
Further east, showers and wet snow, but little accumulation is expected today, but round two from this complex system hits the Valley and Southeastern regions Thursday and Friday with 10 to 20cms of heavy wet snow possible. Windy conditions are also expected.
"This is a perfect example of the notorious difficulty there is with forecasting Colorado lows, and falls in line with the guidance provided earlier this week regarding how additional tweaks could be required as the storm's path became clearer," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "It's important to note, even though the eastern half of the province is currently not under a Watch or Warning, we can still expect less than ideal conditions in those areas Thursday and Friday, joining the western half of the province which is first up in this three day event."
Sumner explained a trough extending off the main Colorado low system is what will kick off the impacts today in Westman and the Parkland region of the province. The main low pressure system pushes into our region out of the Dakotas on Thursday, and that's what will be bringing the second round of snowfall from that point into Friday.
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"This system is tapping into moisture rich air from the Gulf of Mexico, and that is giving it ample fuel to really pack a snowfall punch as it slowly works its way across the region," he said. "Just how much accumulation we see will be dependent on a number of factors, including air temperature at the time, but with the general warming of the ground the last few weeks, we can expect quite a bit of melting on contact. As temperatures dip overnight, that's when we'll see the snow pile up. The bottom line is we're likely looking at a sloppy and slushy mess once the precipitation really kicks into gear."
He noted there is still uncertainty regarding the exact impacts over the eastern half of the province, specifically timing of the precipitation as well as type, but Sumner stressed some combination of a snow rain mix Wednesday through Friday night is guaranteed. Blowing snow will also be part of the mix, with gusty easterly and northerly winds over the next several days.
"Again, I want to stress, even though half of Southern Manitoba is currently not under a Watch or Warning, this will be an impactful Spring snowstorm, and it's quite possible Watches and/or Warnings will be issued as the exact track and precipitation impacts solidify for those eastern regions."
For the latest forecast details, click here.
As for travel conditions, Sumner noted it will be important to check before heading out, especially if you are heading westward where conditions through Westman and southeastern Saskatchewan will be difficult at best.
Storm impacts across Southern Manitoba will last into Friday evening, before this Colorado low finally pulls out of the province.