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Snowfall Warnings continue Thursday morning for almost all of Southern Manitoba, with a widespread 10 to 20 cm expected today through Friday morning. The slow-moving disturbance, which impacted southeastern Saskatchewan yesterday, will pull another wave of snow into our region today, with moderate to heavy snow developing this morning and lasting throughout the day, and overnight into Friday morning.
"The complexity of this scenario, and how there have been two respective systems ultimately interacting with each other, has made forecasting the timing challenging, but what we know best as a Colorado low is on our doorstep Thursday morning, knocking on the door, with a snowy delivery," said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner with a smile.
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According to Environment Canada, local accumulations higher than 20 cm may occur in areas close to the western escarpment of the Red River Valley.
"That's related to what we call topographic enhancement," explained Sumner. "As the parcels of air within this system rise in elevation to get over the escarpment, they cool, and cool parcels of air have less ability to hold moisture than warmer parcels, therefore that moisture falls, and most likely will be as snow."
Sumner pointed out, similar to Wednesday, most of Southern Manitoba will see precipitation begin as either a snow-rain mix or wet snow.
"A more considerable and consistent snow-rain mix is what we'll start the day with," said Sumner. "Very much like what we saw in parts of the province Wednesday morning, but rather than bursts of precipitation periodically, once it begins, we can expect it to last. That mix will changeover to just snowfall later in the day, as temperatures cool. This will be heavy, wet snow, exactly the kind we're used to seeing during an April snowstorm."
As for how much snow actually accumulates, that remains a question mark.
"We've been saying it all week, and we saw it right before our eyes Wednesday morning, because of how warm the ground is, almost all the snow we received Wednesday melted on contact, or shortly there after," he said. "We'll see that scenario happen again Thursday, but eventually the amount of snow falling will be faster than the melting, coupled with temperatures dropping below the freezing mark, and then we'll see accumulation building up on boulevards and lawns."
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Sumner added we will see breezy conditions Thursday, but because of heavy the snow will be due to its moisture content, blowing snow, particularly ground drifting, may not be a huge concern, but that doesn't mean visibility won't be reduced.
"Based on the high snowfall rates we are likely to see over the next 24 to 36 hours, the falling snow may be the bigger culprit regarding reduced visibility."
The system is expected to finally move out of our area Friday evening, with a return to sunshine for the weekend, but temperatures ten degrees, or more, below average.