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It's hard to believe it took nearly until the end of April for our first Rainwatchers of the season. It's not like it's been dry, rather the precipitation has come more often as flaky white stuff than rainfall. Yesterday, we saw our first shower of any significance for 2023 in the Portage area.
"Wednesday, an Alberta clipper moved through the province, like they always do, in a quick fashion," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "As it did, it brought relatively minor shower activity to a wide swath of Southern Manitoba. With that said, we need to keep in mind many regions are quite saturated, and the frost is still coming out of the ground. That all added together means what we saw yesterday will primarily pond and run off."
The following totals are courtesy Environment Canada and the Manitoba Ag Weather Network:
Winnipeg (airport) - 7.4mm
Arborg - 6.8 mm
Carman - 6.8mm
Teulon - 6.5 mm
Bagot - 5.7 mm
Brunkild - 5.8 mm
St. Claude - 5.1 mm
Portage - 5.0 mm (5 to 10 was in the forecast)
Gladstone - 4.9 mm
Elm Creek - 4.7mm
Austin - 4.3 mm
Manitou - 4.1 mm
Morris/Dominion City - 3.9mm
Holland - 3.8 mm
Pilot Mound - 3.3mm
For the latest forecast details, click here.
Looking ahead to the remainder of the week, Sumner noted two more weak disturbances will move through the area or graze it, but at this point, neither is expected to be a real rain-maker, leading to substantial totals.
"The first system is diving through the Dakotas today, and areas along the international border could see some shower activity before noon," he said. "After a seasonal and mainly sunny day Friday, another Alberta clipper crosses the province, and that could lead to a few more millimeters Saturday. Overall, the two systems combined, I expect 5 to 10mm max."
An upper-level trough will build into the region for the weekend, and the generally northwesterly flow will continue, meaning cooler air than average for this time of year, and temperatures remaining below seasonal.
Sumner stressed the first week of May is looking like a pivot point.
"After a long stretch of well below average temperatures, it appears we're in for a change toward seasonal, or above, over the course of the first few days of May," he said. "An upper-level ridge is expected to build across the Prairies, and that means a much warmer airmass than we've had will settle into the region. Keeping in mind average daytime highs right now are around 16, the long-range forecast models are showing signs by mid-next week we should be back at that point, or a little warmer. With all of us really, really ready for Spring, this will be a welcome change, that's for sure."