Whether you call sudden, jarring or dramatic, the significant change in the weather pattern beginning Wednesday will be a snap back to reality for Southern Manitoba after several weeks of generally well above average temperatures. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for the entire southern half of the province ahead of an early taste of winter in the coming days.
"When we look back at the first three plus weeks of October, daytime highs in the Pembina Valley were consistently several degrees above average for any specific point in the month," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "In fact, we were four to eight degrees warmer than usual much of the time, with only a few days when highs lingered near normal or slightly below. So, you take that into account regarding what's to come, and yes, the snow on the way will feel, for some, like it's coming out of nowhere."
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Sumner noted there are two distinct systems which will combine to potentially bring, by the weekend, 10 to 20cms of snowfall to much of Southern Manitoba.
"The first is a weakening low pressure system, which may bring some light flurries to Western Manitoba, but the Pembina Valley and Red River Valley will see little to no precipitation from it," he noted. "The second system begins impacting the region by Wednesday afternoon, with the expectation of several rounds of snowfall from then until Friday morning."
Sumner noted confidence has continued to grow since the weekend regarding the snowfall to come, and it's quite likely we'll see impacts including a return to winter driving conditions.
"Snow begins building into the region, west to east, starting Wednesday with the southwestern part of the province seeing the white stuff first," Sumner said. "By early afternoon the western Red River Valley should start to receive flurries, with areas east of the Red more than likely receiving a snow-rain mix. As temperatures cool after sunset, there will be a transition to just snowfall, with snow expected to be the dominant form of precipitation Thursday into early Friday morning."
There are a couple of x-factors regarding just how much snow may accumulate.
"We need to keep in mind the ground is still quite warm for this time of year, so a lot of the initial snowfall will melt on contact, but as we get into the overnight hours of Wednesday, and temperatures drop, we may see a layer build up," he explained. "Secondly, where the rain-snow line sets up between the relatively colder air versus warmer of this system will also play a role. Generally speaking, at this point, the highest snowfall totals are expected west of the Manitoba escarpment, with decreasing storm totals as you move east toward the Ontario border."
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Sumner stressed it's likely travel will be impacted Thursday into Friday morning, and we all will need to shift our driving habits back to the usual winter approach. Winds are expected to remain northerly in the 20 to 40 km/h range, so some spotty blowing snow is possible, but that will also hinge on how heavy the snowfall is considering how moisture laden it's expected to be.
High pressure builds in after the snowfall, starting Friday, with sunshine expected throughout much of Southern Manitoba by that afternoon. Along with that will be well below average temperatures for this time of year, as Arctic air invades the region. Highs Friday through next Monday will range between -1 and -4, with overnight lows dipping to -10 or colder. The averages at this time of year are 8 degrees daytime and -2 overnight.
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