Groundhog Day was Sunday, and once again, Canadians turned to their favourite furry forecasters to predict the arrival of spring. But how reliable are these animals? According to The Weather Network, the answer is not very.
Balzac Billy, Alberta’s "Prairie Prognosticator," predicted an early spring during the 22nd Annual Balzac Groundhog Day Celebration. His historical success rate? Just 42 per cent. Despite the spectacle—and a free pancake breakfast—Billy’s accuracy remains a gamble. It’s also worth noting that Billy is a Richardson Ground Squirrel, not a true groundhog.
Shubenacadie Sam from Nova Scotia fared a little better with a 58 per cent success rate. At the same time, Wiarton Willie in Ontario remains one of the least reliable, with just 29 per cent accuracy. In Pennsylvania, Punxsutawney Phil also called for six more weeks of winter, a prediction that may be as reliable as a coin toss.
Manitoba Merv, however, consistently tops the list with a 73 per cent success rate. His predictions are the ones to watch, though they still don’t compare to actual meteorological data.
In Quebec, Fred la Marmotte’s predictions are worth about as much as a snowball in this weather—his success rate stands at 36 per cent.
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