Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a pause on the consumer carbon levy for April 1st. With gas stations switching over to summer fuel, a pause on the consumer levy, an expected federal election end of April, U.S. tariffs set to implement April 2nd, and a possible ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine; there has never been a more tumultuous month ahead for gas prices.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, says he’s never seen so many factors at play.
“In my almost two decades of analyzing oil markets, I don’t know that there’s been so many headlines that could be major impacts on oil prices all at the same time like we’re experiencing. Obviously, carbon tax has been on the thoughts of many over the last little while now, and with this consumer levy being off, it’s probably safe to say we’ll see a dip in gas prices here shortly.”
Much like the weather in Saskatchewan, predicting the market for gas prices is nearly impossible. Summer fuel will cause a small rise, consumer levy could drop it, U.S. tariffs, potential ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine, OPEC+ is expected to restore oil production from when they cut it in 2020. For farmers getting ready to fill slip tanks, or truckers looking to fill up at the pump, De Haan states people should brace for changes.
“I think in the short term, it's very difficult to make that prediction of whether you should fill up or wait. Obviously now, prices, if they haven't already, will likely inch up over the week because of that change over to summer gasoline. Then, we have a potential reprieve coming on April 1st with a carbon tax, so it may be advisable to wait, but then on April 2nd, we may see [U.S.] tariffs be implemented so prepare for a tumultuous time when it comes to filling up and the overall direction of oil prices.”
For most in Saskatchewan, they’re kind of market-trapped when it comes to buying fuel. Farmers will need to fill their tanks for the upcoming seeding season, truckers still need fuel to haul materials, and passenger cars still need fuel to get people to work every morning. However, understanding the broader market for oil and gas can maybe give some reasoning for why we could see wildly varying prices at the pump over the next month.