The winter storm is mostly playing out the way Environment Canada is expecting it to, except for a slight delay last night in the arrival of storm conditions to reach southern Manitoba.
Natalie Hasell, warning preparedness meteorologist, notes snowfall amounts will be the highest west of Winnipeg and added there is also a slight change to the conditions that can be expected in the Southeast.
“We now are also considering drizzle or freezing drizzle for later today and tonight,” she explains. “So, snow accumulation is a little bit lower in the tonight period because of this possibility of drizzle and freezing drizzle. But overall, that will just complicate the situation. It will not make it any easier. Visibility will still be quite low.”
Hasell says snowfall accumulations will still be quite significant for the Southeast. The spring snowstorm is expected to ease in all areas by Friday morning.
How does this spring storm compare to the winter storms we experienced in the past few months?
“If we look back at storms that we've had this season, the last time we had a pretty long-lasting blizzard was, I think around the 19th of February. And if you recall, roads were closed, schools were closed. We had these conditions for almost a day, and then there was a break. And then there was a little bit more of blowing snow, reducing visibility. So overall it was several days' worth. But that storm only produced 5 centimeters of snow. We are expecting 4 to 8 to 10 times that, or even 12 times that. So, this is a much greater amount of snow that we're going to have to deal with. And with the winds blowing this stuff around, some places are going to see really large drifts, which will also be difficult to maneuver around.”
Hasell explains the similarities between the weather system moving through the province this week and the historic weather event 25 years ago.
“We've been using the 1997 storm as the benchmark to compare this event with that one; very similar setup, very similar amounts that happened in ‘97 are forecast here. I think the Red River Valley got like 48 centimeters in about a day in 1997, which was April 4th to 7th for the full length of time for the event. And, of course, that Storm of the Century was followed by the Flood of the Century, so I'm hoping that that's not what we see here flood-wise.”
The provincial flood forecasters continue to monitor this storm and will provide another flood forecast update later.
Hasell says the current winter storm is covering a large area and she expects this could have an impact on flood forecasts for Manitoba.
“Considering the span of this storm extending from southeastern Saskatchewan across southern Manitoba, now including parts of northern Manitoba, and also affecting northwestern Ontario. Not forgetting, of course, our partners to the south, Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota. All of these places are being hit by this storm, and this precipitation does eventually have to melt and a lot of that, therefore, flows here. So, the flood question is larger than just Southern Manitoba, we do have to look at other areas in the basin that then empty into here.”
Hasell says the storm this week compares closest to the Storm of the Century in 1997 when looking at spring storms. She notes it also has many similarities to the fall storm of 2019.
“I think it was October 9th to 12th,” she recalls. “That was a Colorado low, affecting similar areas. Temperature ranges were a little bit different. And the trees were in leaf then, whereas now, luckily, they're not yet in leaf, so the impacts will be a little bit different than what we saw in 2019. But that was a huge storm that shut a lot of things down for several days. So, it was good for people to preemptively close highways and close schools. And important that people pay attention to the warnings and what other authorities are suggesting or have imposed, like the RCMP closing the highways.”
Hasell says we can expect weather conditions to improve by Friday morning.
“The storm itself is long-lasting and then the impacts of this storm obviously are immediate and in the close or short-term it'll take a while for people to shovel themselves out of this or to clear the roads from the storm. So, patience is a virtue that we are also encouraging.”
