After excellent travel conditions Friday through Sunday, that's will change today, Louis Riel day, as the final in a series of clippers impacts the province.
"Snow began in Western Manitoba early this morning, and that area of snowfall is tracking northwesterly to southeasterly through the province," said CMOS Accredited weathercaster Chris Sumner Monday morning. "Light snow will develop in the Red River Valley and Southeastern areas this morning, with the expectation of 5-10cms in total by the time it tapers off later today. Snowfall rates will pick up as the main area of precipitation arrives, so it won't take long for the region to hit those expected marks."
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Based on the current track of the system, according to Sumner, it appears the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg, as well as the Southeastern corner of the province will see the most snow from this fast moving low-pressure system.
"We have seen a slight shift in where the highest totals will be since we first started keeping an eye on the system before the weekend, but for the most part, what will play out today is in line with initial projections," he added.
Monday's snowfall will only be part of the story, as gusty northerly winds will develop behind the system, as it passes through, and another round of cold, Arctic air rushes into the region.
"Those winds will push toward 60 km/h, and are expected to pick-up before the snow ends later today," noted Sumner. "What that means is blowing snow, and reduced visibility, will be a factor to consider as you travel today. It's likely we'll have to fair to poor visibility, especially in open areas, once the wind kicks in. This will be relatively light snow, and it will be pretty easy to blow around, similar to what happened overnight Saturday into Sunday morning in some regions which led to localized white out conditions in parts of the southern Red River Valley."
The strongest winds are expected in the western Red River Valley, with only slightly lighter winds east of Highway 75, so expectations are driving conditions in that area will be impacted, too, with both areas on tap for gusty conditions this afternoon and tonight. Southwestern Manitoba will see windy conditions this morning, before diminishing early this afternoon.
"There will definitely be travel impacts from the combination of wind, snow and blowing snow, and with today being a travel day for some after a weekend away, it will be important to check the latest road report before heading out the door," he added.
Conditions will improve this evening, as the wind backs off, and then we're in for a several day stretch of well below average temperatures.
"Arctic high pressure is on the doorstep, right behind today's system, and it will arrive tonight, and will settle in for much of the weekend," said Sumner. "Well below average temperatures for this point in February are expected Tuesday through Friday, with some moderation expected as we get into the final weekend of February."
The coldest conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday, when highs in the -23 to -25 range are likely. Averages for this time of year are -6 daytime and -16 overnight.
"We are expecting a fair amount of sunshine this week, so that's some good news to go along with the chilly temperatures," he said. "From a snowfall perspective, there is a chance we could see flurries Wednesday night into Thursday, and that would be from the far outer edge of a strong winter storm expected to move through parts of the U.S. Plains and Mid-West. At this point, that system is expected to stay well south of us, but it's still something to keep an eye on, because there remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding its projected track."