With several consecutive days of warm temperatures, well above zero, the Spring snowmelt has begun and surface run-off has started in most southern Manitoba basins. As the melt continues, river flows and levels are expected to increase in the next three to five days and ice on Manitoba’s lakes, rivers and creeks will weaken.
Late Tuesday afternoon the province released its first flood update since last week's snowstorm dumped 10 to 20+ cms across much of the Red River basin and Southeastern Manitoba, with similar amounts also falling on the U.S. side of the Red River Valley.
While there certainly are some areas of concern, the risk remains low to moderate for the Assiniboine River. Operation of the Portage Diversion is anticipated to minimize and reduce the effects of ice jamming on the Assiniboine River east of Portage la Prairie, and control river levels in Winnipeg and areas along the Assiniboine River downstream of Portage la Prairie.
Other areas may have some bigger issues.
"The flood forecast remains consistent with the spring outlook issued on March 22nd, which indicated a major flood risk for the Red River between Emerson and the Red River Floodway inlet," stated the report. "The flood protection level of community dikes, and individual flood protection works in the Red River basin, are higher than predicted flood levels, and are expected to protect communities and properties in the region."
Operation of the Red River Floodway is expected this spring to reduce water levels within Winnipeg.
The flood risk remains low to moderate in the Interlake region along the Fisher and Icelandic rivers.
There is also a low risk of flooding for most other Manitoba basins including the Saskatchewan River, Whiteshell lakes area and northern Manitoba. With the exceptions of Dauphin Lake and Lake St. Martin, most Manitoba lakes, including Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba, are projected to remain within operating ranges after the spring run-off.
Meanwhile, the risk of spring flooding is generally low along several other rivers including the Souris, Roseau, Rat and Pembina Rivers. Water levels are expected to remain below community and individual flood protection levels.
The update also indicated the Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre is monitoring a system that will likely affect southeastern Manitoba, the Red River basin in the U.S., and the Lake of the Woods basin in Ontario. However, at this time, forecasted precipitation is unlikely to have a significant effect on the forecasted flows and levels in Manitoba basins.
The risk of flooding could change in any of the basins depending on weather conditions in the next few weeks.
Meanwhile, the Forecast Centre says as the melt continues ice conditions can change rapidly without warning and Manitobans are reminded to keep off ice as the temperature continues to rise.