Manitoba’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre has released its Fall Conditions Report, which indicates soil moisture levels at the time of freeze-up, precipitation received over the fall and summer, and river and lake levels are all normal to below normal throughout the province.
The report notes although much of November precipitation fell as snow, warmer temperatures allowed for the snow to melt and contribute to soil moisture levels, leaving very little snow accumulation on the ground.
Most Manitoba basins are forecasted to receive normal to below-normal precipitation, and above-normal temperatures for the remainder of the winter and spring. This is based on long-term forecasted winter and spring precipitation as a general indication of probable future weather, as well as spring flows and levels throughout Manitoba basins. Global climate models project the effect of El Nino weather patterns across the globe.
These factors are possible indicators of lower spring runoff levels, but the long-term spring runoff forecast for spring 2024 cannot be confirmed as conditions could change.
“While the fall report shows our rivers and lakes have the capacity to receive a normal amount of spring run-off, this will depend on precipitation and snowmelt rate,” said Manitoba, Transportation and Infrastructure Minister Lisa Naylor. “We will continue to closely monitor the conditions and prepare for potential outcomes.”
It was also announced further basin condition updates will be released as necessary.
You can read the entire Fall Conditions Report, here.
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