The Government of Saskatchewan has rejected the federal oil and gas emissions cap and new Methane 75 regulations, citing severe potential economic consequences for the province. According to an independent report by the Saskatchewan Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal, these federal mandates could result in significant financial losses and job cuts across the province.
The report estimates that by 2050, Saskatchewan's oil production could decrease by 38% to 52% due to the emissions cap and methane reduction mandates. This drop would result in a loss of between $4.8 billion and $7.1 billion in royalty and tax revenue, with total lost government revenues potentially reaching $43.3 billion.
"Saskatchewan is facing an existential economic threat from these federal policies," said Justice Minister and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre. "The report presents undeniable data showing the devastating impact these federal mandates would have on our province’s economy and workforce. We are armed with independent evidence to challenge these policies on constitutional grounds, as they represent a clear overreach into Saskatchewan's control over natural resources."
Economic and Employment Concerns
The report also predicts Saskatchewan’s economy would contract by 4.3% by 2030 and by 6.4% by 2050, with a cumulative GDP loss of $230 billion by 2050. Employment losses could range between 12,800 and 34,000 jobs over the same period.
Tristan Goodman, President and CEO of the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada (EPAC), expressed opposition to the federal emissions cap, stating it undermines ongoing efforts by Canadian producers to reduce emissions. "This cap introduces further investment uncertainty and could be deemed unconstitutional. Reducing methane emissions should remain under provincial jurisdiction, and federal intervention is not necessary," said Goodman.
Global Emissions Impact
The report suggests that the federal mandates will not contribute to global emissions reductions, as production cuts in Canada are likely to be offset by increased production in jurisdictions with weaker environmental standards. Provincially regulated methane emissions in Saskatchewan have already fallen by two-thirds between 2015 and 2023, further emphasizing the province’s progress in reducing its environmental footprint.
Next Steps
The Saskatchewan Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal conducted this analysis under the authority of the *Saskatchewan First Act*, which came into force in September 2023. The provincial government plans to use the report as part of its ongoing constitutional challenge to the federal mandates.
Minister Eyre highlighted the need for provincial autonomy in managing natural resources and stressed the economic damage that federal interference could cause. "This is about protecting Saskatchewan’s economic future and ensuring that our province retains control over its vital resources."
The full report is available on the Government of Saskatchewan's website, and further details on the Tribunal and its members can also be accessed online.