Indications are for potential near-normal to below-normal spring runoff across Manitoba basins next year.
However, the extent of spring runoff is largely dependent on precipitation throughout the winter and spring and snowmelt conditions. The 2025 spring flood outlook will be released in the later weeks of February and March.
According to Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre's 2024 Manitoba Basins Fall Conditions Report, soil moisture levels at the time of freeze-up were normal to below-normal for most areas of Manitoba, with river and lake levels at near normal.
The exception, however, is the Red River Basin in Manitoba and the United States which have above-normal soil moisture, and portions of western Manitoba which have well-below-normal conditions.
Meantime, precipitation from November to early December was significantly higher than normal.
Longer term, indications are that a weak la Niña is expected to develop and persist through the winter. In Manitoba, this generally brings below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation from December to March.
Flows and levels on most rivers are near normal for this time of the year and are expected to remain so through the winter.
Most Manitoba lakes are at normal to below-normal levels for this time of the year and are within their respective operating ranges.