It appears the Pembina and Red River Valleys, along with Southeastern Manitoba, will be outside the most impactful conditions from a Colorado low that will track through the Dakotas and Minnesota Friday and Saturday.
"The latest forecast model runs Friday morning have shown yet another slight push eastward with the general track of the system, and that has decreased the likelihood even further of our area seeing the most significant impacts from this storm," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "The current guidance indicates the heaviest snowfall will stay in Minnesota and northwestern Ontario, but this system will still bring some conditions of note to this region."
According to Sumner, those include showers, freezing rain and then finally wrapping up with some light snow and possibly blowing snow.
"As the system moves northeast, we'll first see showers develop Friday night while temperatures remain above freezing," he said. "As the cold air wraps in around the backside of the low courtesy of strong northwesterly winds, precipitation will initially turn to freezing rain, followed by snow. How much of each we receive is entirely dependent on how quickly that cold air is pulled into the Colorado low. With that said, it's likely we will see a little of all three by the time Saturday morning arrives."
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The strong winds with this system may end up being the biggest factor, with gusts between 60 to 80 km/h developing Friday night and expected to last well into Saturday.
"The pressure gradient around this Colorado low, or the difference in air pressure between this airmass and the surrounding ones, is quite significant, and that lends itself to generating very strong winds," noted Sumner. "At this point, it looks like the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba will see the strongest gusts as the low nudges by to our southeast."
Sumner added the x-factor alongside the gusty conditions is whether any snow does fall, and if so, how much, because any flakes that do arrive will add to blowing snow potential for the early morning and morning hours of Saturday.
"Again, we are expecting the heaviest snowfall to stay well to our southeast, but considering how strong the winds will be, even a small accumulation of snow would lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility of some level."
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The Colorado low will quickly exit the region, with winds diminishing starting late Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Sumner said surface high pressure will build behind the system, and along with continued northerly surface winds into Sunday, that will usher in a cooler airmass, and lead to below average temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday, with highs around -5 to -7. The average daytime high for this point in March is 0, with the overnight low around -9.
"The cooler conditions won't last very long, with a generally westerly flow aloft returning, bringing warmer conditions and seasonal temperatures to start the week," said Sumner. "Meanwhile, our next system may arrive Monday, but at this point it's expected to be limited to a chance of flurries."