The U.S. National Weather Service out of Grand Forks has released its final Spring flood forecast for the Red River this year.
The risk for significant flooding remains low, running below long-term historical averages for the U.S. portion of the Red River Basin.
Isolated minor Spring flooding is possible for some locations, with the Red at Pembina indicated as having a 50% exceedance probability of reaching that level.
Well above normal precipitation last November led to saturated soils and slightly elevated river levels before freeze-up.
However, snowfall and associated precipitation has been well below normal this winter for the majority of the basin.
Above average temperatures are expected to continue through March, further eroding what little snowpack remains, and will continue to thaw frozen soils.
Spring precipitation, especially any rainfall on frozen ground, will be the most important flood risk factor in the coming months.
The final forecast took into account conditions through Monday, March 10th.
Manitoba's Hydrologic Forecast Centre indicated at the end of February there was a moderate risk of significant flooding along the Red and Pembina Rivers, with the next forecast expected toward the end of March.