A significant winter storm is moving across the prairies, bringing heavy snowfall to parts of Manitoba.
Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Brad Vrolijk says the system will move through in two phases.
"The first is an initial band of snow that's going to move through Parkland, Manitoba, and then into the southern Interlake through the late day," Vrolijk explains. "There was some uncertainty about how far south this would extend, but snowfall warnings have now been expanded to include Carberry, the Trans-Canada Highway corridor to Winnipeg, and areas southeast of Winnipeg."
Snow is expected to start falling in the region late Thursday afternoon and into the evening, with 5 to 10 cm possible overnight. If the system shifts further south, totals could reach 10 to 15 cm.
"For areas north of Winnipeg, this initial wave will be the main snowfall event, with totals of 10 to 20 cm expected," Vrolijk says. "In the Parkland region, snowfall could be closer to 20 to 25 cm."
A second round of snow will arrive Friday morning, bringing heavier accumulations to southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg and the Red River Valley.
"There’s a lot of uncertainty as to exactly how heavy that snow will be," Vrolijk says. "There will likely be bands of very heavy snowfall embedded in this system, but the Red River Valley could see anywhere from 5 to 20 cm on Friday alone."
By the time the storm tapers off Friday evening, some areas in the valley could see total snowfall of 15 to 25 cm, though amounts will vary across the region.
Why snowfall amounts are hard to predict
Vrolijk says snowfall totals are difficult to pinpoint because of the nature of this storm.
"The biggest challenge with Friday’s snowfall is convection, which we often associate with rain in the summer," he says. "Rainfall amounts can vary a lot over short distances in a thunderstorm, and this is similar. Some areas could get 15 cm, while a town just 10 km away might only get 5 to 10 cm."
A typical Prairie spring storm
Some Manitobans are eager for spring, but Vrolijk says this type of snowfall is not unusual in March.
"After yesterday’s beautiful weather, not many people expected up to a foot of snow by the end of the week," he says. "But this is pretty typical for the prairies in March. We’re not out of the woods for heavy snow yet."
The good news is that the cold weather won’t last long.
"We’ll have a couple of cooler days this weekend, but temperatures are expected to rise above freezing next week, which should start melting the snowpack again," Vrolijk says.
We will continue to monitor the storm and provide updates as the system develops.