Dr. Daniel Westlake, a political scientist at the University of Saskatchewan, explained the history of the province’s federal politics, including how past trade wars have influenced Sask voters, but said there’s very little chance that the Conservative Party will lose any seats here.
“Every election’s got its unique components to it, and every election has parallels to previous elections,” Dr. Westlake said. “The presence of Donald Trump is a unique factor in this election — I don’t think we’ve had an American president who has been this hostile to Canada and has inserted himself this much into a Canadian election, in quite some time.
"The idea that relations with the United States and particularly trade with the United States, would be a major issue in a Canadian election, is not new. We’ve seen two elections in Canadian history fought over free trade: The 1988 election over the free trade agreement, and the 1911 election fought over reciprocity.”
Westlake said both the 1988 and 1911 elections can offer insights for 2025. In the 1988 election, for example, fought primarily over the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement, public opinion was shifted firmly toward the main two parties, pushing the NDP from Official Opposition status to third place. The Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Mulroney campaigned in favour of the agreement and won a majority government despite the majority of voters, on balance, being opposed to free trade, fearing major changes that would cost Canadian jobs.
“The Liberals and Conservatives ended up on opposing sides of the issue, and the NDP really struggled to try to get their issues inserted into an election that very quickly evolved into a Liberal vs Conservative fight. ... In this election, it looks like there could be a similar dynamic. This may result in an election that’s more of a two-party race than I think we might’ve expected six or eight months ago.”
Economic concerns also tend to drive voter anger against whoever the incumbent party is, Liberal or Conservative. Because of Trump’s aggressive foreign policy, that anger at the incumbent has taken a backseat, although it could remain a significant thorn in the Liberal side.
But for Saskatchewan, Westlake doesn’t see a real chance for any big swings.
“The reality is, is this is probably the most conservative province in the country, probably even more so than Alberta. And while general fluctuations in support for the parties that results from Trump’s comments or cost-of-living concerns, or any other election events, will move polls in Saskatchewan a bit, so many of the seats in Saskatchewan are safe Conservative seats that it’s hard to see anything but a really, really dramatic event keeping the Conservatives from winning here.”
Saskatchewan was, of course, the birthplace of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF), predecessor to the modern federal NDP, Westlake noted, and was therefore politically progressive. However, the election of John Diefenbaker in 1957 marked a shift that has stood the test of time.
“The Liberal Party used to be the stronger of the two large parties, between them and the Conservatives, on the Prairies. ... The Liberal Party used to do quite well in Western Canada, and then you had this election of John Diefenbaker as Conservative leader — somebody from Saskatchewan, who understood Saskatchewan and much more broadly, Prairie politics — and he was able to reorient the Conservative Party toward the Prairies.
“Basically, rural Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta have been hostile to the Liberal Party ever since.”