A Colorado Low moving into the northern United States could provide southern Manitoba with some rain this weekend.
This is the first weekend of summer, as summer officially arrives Friday at 9:42 pm. Scott Kehler with Weatherlogics says the core of this Colorado Low will start to move into the northern United States on Saturday. He notes the best chance for widespread rain in southern Manitoba will come on Sunday as that low-pressure system moves out of the United States and into northern Ontario.
"I think broadly across southern Manitoba, there is a good chance that most folks will get some rain," predicts Kehler. "But the word that I like to use right now is, spotty."
Kehler explains that while there will be rain, the pockets of really heavy, beneficial rains will be quite isolated.
"So not everybody is going to get as much rain as they would probably like," he states.
Having said that, Kehler notes that this Colorado Low will trigger a lot of thunderstorm activity, and some areas will benefit from heavier downpours.
According to Kehler, June is often the wettest month of the year in southern Manitoba, with about 75 millimetres, or three inches. With minimal rain having fallen so far in Steinbach this month, Kehler says the problem is that we are also entering the hottest portion of the year, which means the ground will dry out more quickly.
He notes rainfall across southern Manitoba this month has been quite variable. Kehler says southcentral and southwestern Manitoba received quite a bit of rain in May, which helped those areas get off to a good start. And now in June, they are receiving frequent thunderstorm activity. But, in the southeast, Kehler says the rain in May was lighter, which did not help the season get off to a wet start. He notes since then there has been some occasional rain, but very spotty.
"So generally speaking, the Red River Valley and southeast haven't seen nearly as much precipitation to start the year," says Kehler. "And now as we're moving into the hottest time of the summer, that is going to become even more of a problem if we don't see any more rain arrive."
Meanwhile, as we enter the last 10 days of June, Kehler says this should be a period with fairly normal temperatures. The normal high for this time of year is 25 degrees, while the normal low is 12. Kehler says though we could see some days creep up to 30, it does not appear that we will see any prolonged extreme heat quite yet.
And, as we get into the peak of our growing season, Kehler says not only do we have these warm and humid air masses coming up out of the United States, but with crops growing very quickly, they also pull any moisture they can find in the soil and release it into the air.
"It's not uncommon that southern Manitoba for maybe the odd day or two in July can actually be one of the most humid places in the world as all these factors come together just right," says Kehler. "That's when we get those oppressively humid days in the middle of summer."