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Less than a week after thunderstorms brought upwards of eight tornadoes to the southeast part of the province, Weyburn and the surrounding area could see more storm activity throughout the day today.
Environment Canada meteorologist Crawford Luke said while some storms could form locally, it’s more likely that any severe weather in the southeast will arrive from the west later in the day.
“There’s a chance we could have a storm form in the area, but I think the more likely scenario is we’ll see storms form west of Regina and then drift eastwards with time,” said Luke. “So, it’s probably a bit more likely that one moves in from the west later today.”
Model data shows moderate instability across the region. That means the atmosphere is capable of supporting storm development, but more likely where stronger triggers, such as a dryline or frontal boundary, are present.
According to Luke, the most active window for storms will be in the late afternoon and early evening hours, with the threat tapering off as the night progresses.
“It kind of seems like around eight or nine o’clock this evening, the threat should really diminish,” he noted. “Any storms that we do see later might be gone by 10 o’clock.”
The latest thunderstorm outlook from Environment Canada notes the potential for underestimated surface moisture, particularly with higher dewpoints than models initially suggested. This could lead to stronger localized rainfall if storms do form. This is supported by some of the models used to predict severe weather.
“If there’s higher dewpoints, higher humidity, it does allow for a chance of higher rainfall totals,” Luke explained. “But I wouldn’t say today looks like a washout.” He added that the most any particular area might see is 25 to 40 millimetres, and that would be very isolated.
As for what residents should prepare for, Luke said the main threats from any severe storm in the Weyburn area will be hail and strong wind gusts.
“We’re talking about hail potentially two to four centimetres in diameter, so about the size of a nickel up to a golf ball, and damaging winds potentially gusting over 100 kilometres an hour.”
Luke cautioned that even a marginal day can turn volatile quickly, as seen during the recent tornado outbreak in southeast Saskatchewan.
“It’s always a good idea to treat every thunderstorm seriously,” he said. “There might be watches coming out later today to address this threat.”
You can stay up to date with the latest forecast on the Discover Weyburn Weather page.