A warm and humid air mass will move through the province today, brewing up all the ingredients needed to create severe thunderstorms.
In fact, Environment Canada has issued a Tornado Watch for a large part of the Pembina Valley including:
Mun. of Lorne incl. Notre Dame and Swan Lake
Mun. of Louise incl. Pilot Mound and Crystal City
Mun. of Pembina incl. Manitou La Rivière and Snowflake
Mun. of Rhineland incl. Altona Plum Coulee and Gretna
R.M. of Dufferin incl. Carman Roseisle and Homewood
R.M. of Grey incl. St. Claude Elm Creek and Fannystelle
R.M. of Macdonald incl. Brunkild Starbuck and La Salle
R.M. of Montcalm incl. St. Jean Baptiste
R.M. of Morris incl. Rosenort and Aubigny
R.M. of Roland incl. Jordan and Myrtle
R.M. of Stanley incl. Winkler and Morden
R.M. of Thompson incl. Miami Rosebank and Deerwood
Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms which may produce tornadoes. Strong winds, large hail and heavy rain are also possible.
A highly unstable airmass combined with an approaching disturbance will produce scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. There is a risk of tornadoes with these thunderstorms. This tornado watch may be extended eastward later this afternoon if conditions continue to be favourable.
The risk of tornadoes will end late this evening.
Something called "capping" is making it hard for meteorologists to predict exactly what will happen.
"The capping is just a layer of warm air above the surface, about 1-2 km up in the sky," said Crawford Luke, meteorologist with Environment Canada.
"The best analogy is like when you're boiling pasta or something, if you have a lid on the pot, sometimes the lid comes up and the water boils over, and it makes the sizzle sound and all that. Think of those fluffy clouds as bubbles boiling in your water, and then if one of them goes and blows the lid off, breaks the cap, that's kind of the thunderstorm."
Find the latest Petro Canada Winkler forecast, here.
Luke says, as far as today is concerned, that's what they're watching.
"This leads to a low predictability forecast with a wide range of outcomes possible," said Luke. "We could be looking at some pretty intense thunderstorms today. We could see a hailstorm in Winnipeg later today with strong winds. We could see nothing. It's kind of frustrating trying to plan for stuff. I do predict, however, that somewhere in Manitoba will get a hailstorm today."
The greatest risk will be this afternoon. Meanwhile, some other storms are expected to form in eastern Saskatchewan or right at the border with Manitoba, and those may make it to the city later this evening or overnight.
The rest of the weekend is looking warm and humid with a 60 per cent chance of showers and the risk of a thunderstorm late Saturday afternoon.
Monday is expected to be sunny with a high of 26 degrees.