Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions stalled in 2024, putting the country’s 2030 climate target out of reach, according to the Canadian Climate Institute’s latest Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE).
The preliminary data shows national emissions remained essentially unchanged from 2023 at 694 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt), just 8.5 per cent below 2005 levels. While sectors such as electricity and buildings made modest reductions, rising emissions from oil and gas, particularly oil sands production, offset those gains. Oil and gas emissions increased 1.9 per cent, accounting for nearly a third of Canada’s total emissions.
Experts warn that without coordinated federal, provincial, and territorial policy action, emissions could rise further, jeopardizing Canada’s legislated goal of a 40 to 45 per cent reduction by 2030. The institute notes setbacks including the repeal of the consumer carbon tax, delays to electric vehicle policies, and plans for expanded liquefied natural gas production are contributing to the stalled progress.
“Canada’s emissions momentum is going the wrong way as policy effort slows,” said Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist at the Canadian Climate Institute. “The choices governments make this year will decide whether we lock in decline or drift upwards.”
The institute emphasized that achieving meaningful reductions will require measures such as modernized industrial carbon pricing, stricter methane regulations for oil and gas, investment in clean electricity, and making low-carbon fuels and vehicles more accessible.
2024 also saw extreme climate events continue to escalate costs and risks. Wildfires in 2025 have already burned 8.7 million hectares, while 2024 damages from extreme weather reached a record $8.5 billion in insured losses.
Rick Smith, president of the institute, said, “With emissions flatlining and important policies being scaled back, Canada’s 2030 target is now out of reach—and the longer we take to get back on track, the more Canadians will pay the price.”
The Early Estimate of National Emissions is part of 440 Megatonnes, the Canadian Climate Institute’s project dedicated to climate policy research and modelling.
Quick Facts:
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Canada’s 2024 emissions: 694 Mt CO₂e, 8.5% below 2005 levels
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Oil and gas emissions rose 1.9%
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Transportation emissions declined 0.7%, buildings fell 1.2%, heavy industry down 1.2%, electricity down 1.9%
SOURCE: Canadian Climate Institute