A spokesperson from the Old Farmer’s Almanac says they feel good about their forecast for a snowstorm early next week.
Back in September, the Old Farmer’s Almanac laid out their winter weather outlook for Southern Manitoba, which included a big snowstorm on December 12th and 13th.
Jack Burnett says this is an abnormal prediction, because they don’t usually forecast specific weather events for specific days like this.
“We look for patterns that involve weather trends in an area over long periods of time, local topography, and solar science. We make our forecast about a year and a half in advance and what seldom happens is that all the indicators and the computers spit out something that says snow event or snowstorm.”
However, in this case, Burnett says every one of their indicators points to a snowstorm on Monday and Tuesday.
So, what size of a storm would it take to make this a successful prediction?
Burnett says “We don’t have a specific definition but to our informal, unofficial way of looking at it, if it is 15 or 16 centimetres or something like that, that is more than you would get from just casual snow so we would call that a success.”
With the 12th of December fast approaching, Burnett says he still feels confident.
“We always feel good about it. We make our predictions, we stand by them, and if you and I were to look right now and we knew that it was going to be 20 next week, the Old Farmer's Almanac wouldn’t change our forecast. Our forecast is our forecast, and we are either right or wrong, and if we are wrong, we will say so."
Burnett adds, “We are looking you right in the eye, and we are giving it our best shot, and we are willing to stand by it.”
With all that said, Environment Canada’s forecast actually lines up nicely. Right now, Environment Canada is calling for snow to begin falling late Monday night, continuing into late Wednesday evening. You can read our story with CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner, by clicking the link below.
Only time will tell.