"Minot is without our friends from the north. We love that traffic [and] it's important for the vitality of our community. So, it does concern me."
Minot, North Dakota is a short 2-hour trip south of Estevan. Both communities see cross-border traffic year-round, with residents travelling to either city regularly. With the looming threat from the Trump administration of a possible 25% tariff on Canadian imports to the United States, Mayor Tom Ross is concerned that it could impact Minot.
He recalled when COVID-19 closed the borders back in 2020 and the aftermath of that measure. He fears the community could see similar results. "COVID shut it off. Essentially, you know, turn[ed] the spigot off, and that's affected our economy. We know it. We see it. Our small businesses see it all the time. And with the work of our tourism organization, our Visit Minot team, we've worked hard to start opening that door and welcoming our Canadian friends down. And so yeah, it concerns us."
On January 20, after being inaugurated, US President Donald Trump said that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could be applied as soon as February 1. After Trump won the election in November, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and premiers from each province and territory have been in talks as to how to respond to the threat of tariffs. In a confirmation hearing on Wednesday, Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick detailed a possible two-stage plan for imposing tariffs, suggesting that Canada could avoid them if they curb illegal immigration and fentanyl coming into the US. "This tariff model is simply to shut their borders with respect to America. If we are your biggest trading partner, show us the respect, shut your border and end fentanyl coming into this country," Lutnick explained to Michigan Senator Gary Peters.
The North Dakota mayor shared that many Canadians visit Minot for various purposes year-round. One sector he's predicting could see a significant impact on the city's economy is tourism. "We have a summer softball tournament that, I believe we get, you know, 30-35 girls softball teams that come down and spend the weekend and the impact that has on our community. We're home to the North Dakota State Fair. It's the largest event in the state and we get an incredible amount of traffic coming down from Canada. And if that shuts off, we're going to feel it."
Two hours north or south: where will people go?
Country Thunder Saskatchewan and the North Dakota State Fair are two events running close together this summer, both of which see a lot of traffic from residents in southeast Saskatchewan. Both events are two hours north and south of Estevan, respectively. Both will see similar artists featured like Jelly Roll and Bailey Zimmerman. "If you're saying that they're going to be two hours north of where you're at right now, and [...] if it's going to cost them more money to go two hours south than going two hours north, well, that's an easy decision to make," Ross said.
The focus ahead
Ross shared that in his personal opinion, Trump's message of 'strength from within' has resonated with people. He cited issues like inflation and the rising cost of energy that's affecting North Dakotans. "There's just so much that we're struggling with. And it's from the heartland here in Minot, North Dakota."
He's hopeful that, despite its differences, the two countries can continue to collaborate and thrive together. "I don't know what I don't know. And to see that, to see it play out, I mean, maybe it's an opportunity for the two countries to get together and come to the table and say, 'Okay, let's find a solution. How can we do this better?'. Maybe that's the tool, or maybe that's the catalyst to make it happen."
"I've lived by the philosophy of the more eyes you have on a problem, the better the solution is going to be. Together we can find a solution. And I've lived by that. And I think the City of Minot has been successful with that. I see it as an opportunity for officials on both sides of the border to come together and say, 'Okay, how can we make this beneficial for both sides?'."
Ross noted that there's been little discussion between his office and other cities close to the US-Canada border, as there are more pressing issues concerning his constituents. "Me personally, we're working on property tax reform here in North Dakota. We're working here locally. We're working on trying to finance and build and get to the finish line a flood protection project that's going to, you know, save our residents a heartache of another flood along with incredible increase in flood insurance premiums. So those are the issues that we're kind of focused on or dealing with right now."
With just 24 hours left, little is known about what President Trump will impose on Canadian imports and how Canada will respond.